Modeling Student's Academic Performance During Covid-19 Based on Classification in Support Vector Machine

This study proposed a statistical investigate the pattern of students' academic performance before and after online learning due to the Movement Control Order (MCO) during pandemic outbreak and a modelling students' academic performance based on classification in Support Vector Machine (SVM). Data sample were taken from undergraduate students of Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris (UPSI). Student's Grade Point Average (GPA) were obtained to developed model of academic performances during Covid-19 outbreak. The prediction model was used to predict the academic performances of university students when online classes was conducted. The algorithm of Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to develop a model of students' academic performance in university. For the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, there are two important parameters which are C (misclassification tolerance parameter) and epsilon need to identify before proceed the further analysis. The parameters was applied to four different types of kernel which is linear kernel, radial basis function kernel, polynomial kernel and sigmoid kernel and the result was found that the best accuracy achieved by SVM are 73.68% by using linear kernel and the worst accuracy obtained from a sigmoid kernel which is 67.99% with parameter of misclassification tolerance C is 128 and epsilon is 0.6._

Short-Term Forecasting of Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Malaysia Using RF-SSA Model.

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was discovered in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has affected millions of lives worldwide. On 29th April 2020, Malaysia reported more than 5,000 COVID-19 cases; the second highest in the Southeast Asian region after Singapore. Recently, a forecasting model was developed to measure and predict COVID-19 cases in Malaysia on daily basis for the next 10 days using previously-confirmed cases. A Recurrent Forecasting-Singular Spectrum Analysis (RF-SSA) is proposed by establishing L and ET parameters via several tests. The advantage of using this forecasting model is it would discriminate noise in a time series trend and produce significant forecasting results. The RF-SSA model assessment was based on the official COVID-19 data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) to predict daily confirmed cases between 30th April and 31st May, 2020. These results revealed that parameter L = 5 (T/20) for the RF-SSA model was indeed suitable for short-time series outbreak data, while the appropriate number of eigentriples was integral as it influenced the forecasting results. Evidently, the RF-SSA had over-forecasted the cases by 0.36%. This signifies the competence of RF-SSA in predicting the impending number of COVID-19 cases. Nonetheless, an enhanced RF-SSA algorithm should be developed for higher effectivity of capturing any extreme data changes.